The 2015 Hurricane Season began on June 1st
and runs through until November 30th. Although forecasters are anticipating a
‘below-normal’ number of storms, they are also telling us “that’s no reason to believe coastal areas will have it easy.”
Be sure to watch the video at the end of this article - extremely scary but true!! Project Phoenix...we MUST be prepared!
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration anticipates that this season will witness the formation of six
to 11 named storms. They’ve set the likelihood for that many storms at 70
percent.
Storms are named when they have winds of 39
mph or higher. Of those six to 11 storms, forecasters anticipate three to six
could become full-blown hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Up to two
major hurricanes – with winds of 111 mph or higher – could form.
Now – where would be the most likely place for
these major hurricanes to make land fall? Hands down, the experts all agree
that the most likely AND the most vulnerable would be Tampa Bay.
What The??!!
It’s been more than 90 years since the last
major hurricane came onshore in the Tampa Bay area and experts are warning that
complacency may prove costly in lives and property.
According to Massachusetts Institute of
Technology meteorology professor, Kerry Emanuel, “We’ve been kind of lucky… In the Tampa region, an Andrew-sized storm
could cause more than $200 billion in damage, according to a local government
study in 2010.”
Meteorologists say areas like Tampa, Daytona
Beach and Houston should get hit with major storms every 20 to 40 years or so.
The last major storm to strike Tampa hit way back in 1921. Although Hurricane
Frances passed through the area in 2004, it was diminished in strength by the
time it hit the Bay.
Emanuel was quoted by the U.S. News &
World Report, “It’s just the law of
statistics… Luck will run out. It’s a question of when.”
Even a Category 1 storm would cause more than $2 billion in damage around Tampa if it were to strike directly, according to estimates from Hillsborough County, where more than 110,000 structures (most of them residential) sit in an evacuation zone.
Upgraded
building codes that call for shatter-proof windows and hefty wind resistance
mean new construction stands a better chance of holding up in a storm.
"The
things that we are building are going to be more resilient than they have been
in the past," said Bryan Koon, the state's emergency management director.
"Building
codes … have actually reduced the (potential) damages (from a hurricane),"
said Graham Tobin, a geosciences professor at the University of South Florida.
Upgrades,
though, have limited reach, as many structures predate the standards. More than
half of the homes in Pasco were built before the Florida Building Code was
enacted in 1994, according to the county.
Tampa
Bay is also full of mobile homes — more than 100,000 across Pinellas, Pasco,
Hillsborough and Hernando. Even with improved durability (the result of
Hurricane Andrew, which left chewed-up double-wides strewn across South
Florida) such structures are often broken up by cyclones and tossed about like
autumn leaves in the wind. A 2013 state analysis found that there were more
than 850,000 mobile homes in Florida.
Building
stronger, more expensive structures is not always the best way to mitigate
financial loss, according to Watson, who has worked in hazard modeling since
1989 and has advised a panel that seeks to ensure Florida adequately assesses
its risks from hurricane damage. For instance, he said, the destruction of a
modest, older home along the water still costs less than repairing a million-dollar
mansion that is damaged 25 percent.
A
more pragmatic view, he said, would be to assume that "if something is on
the coast, it's going to get knocked down."
AFTER THE WIND COMES THE WATER
After a hurricane, when the wind
dies down, the water begins to rise. In Tampa Bay especially, storm surge poses
a significant threat. If a strong hurricane hit, 20 feet of water could rush
into downtown Tampa, flooding miles of land and pulling splintered homes out to
sea when it receded.
"We
can make things safer from the wind,"
said Harold Wanless, a geology professor at the University of Miami, but "there is so little you can do to make
something safer from the storm surge. The risk is just huge."
Experts are particularly worried about the potential casualties a major storm in the Bay area would create.
Christopher Landsea of
the National Hurricane Center in Miami is reported to have said, “My worry is that we’ll have hundreds or
even thousands dead in the next major hurricane that hits the Tampa Bay area.”Tampa Bay area residents can keep up with storm activity by bookmarking the National Hurricane Center’s website. Residents readying for the season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. For local weather and severe weather alerts, visit the National Weather Service online.
All residents throughout the Bay area are urged to create emergency kits, know whether they reside in evacuation zones and brush up on the safest routes out of town should evacuations be called for.
Following, is a county-by-county breakdown of where to go for important hurricane information:
Pinellas County
The county has put
together an extensive list of resources available to residents on its website. Residents can follow these
links to access information on:
The county’s full 2015
hurricane guide is also available for download by following this link.
Sarasota County
Residents will find the
county’s emergency management website is the place to go for
everything they need to know about surviving the season.Follow these links for specific information on:
Manatee County
Manatee County Emergency Management office provides a
wealth of information on its website. Follow these links for specific
information on:The county also has a 2015 disaster planning guide available for download.
Hillsborough County
The county’s Office of Emergency Management website offers everything
residents here need to know to weather a storm. Follow these links for
information on:
Pasco County
The county’s Office of Emergency Management website offers a variety of
resources for the storm season. Follow these links for specific information on:The county has also prepared a Hurricane Guide that details what residents need to know. Download it by following this link.
According to the National Hurricane Center, there’s more to it than just stocking up on water and nonperishable food.
Here’s a checklist of things the center recommends residents do before storms arrive:
- Discuss
the types of hazards that could affect your family. Know your home’s
vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind.
- Locate
a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard.
In some circumstances, the safest areas may not be in your home, but
within your community.
- Determine
escape routes from your home and places to meet. These should be measured
in tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.
- Have
an out-of-state friend as a family contact, so all your family members
have a single point of contact.
- Make
a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.
- Post
emergency telephone numbers beside your phones and make sure your children
know how and when to call 911. (You can also add emergency numbers to
your cellphone contact list for easy reference.)
- Check
your insurance coverage – flood damage is not usually covered by
homeowners insurance.
- Stock
nonperishable emergency supplies and a disaster supply kit.
- Use
a NOAA
weather radio. Remember to replace its
battery every six months, as you do with your smoke detectors.
- Take
first aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.
Source: National Weather Service
MUST WATCH VIDEO
Hurricane Phoenix: The Tampa Bay Region's Worst Case Scenario. An eye-opening & frightening look at the potential effects of a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane making a direct landfall on the Tampa Bay metro area.
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